Gaddafi has lost; but who won?

Burning debris are seen after rebels based in the capital Tripoli, following heavy fighting on 23 August attached overrun, Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi Bab al-Azizya. : AFP photo

In Afghanistan and the Iraq the external forces to military success responds by exaggerating their hands. It deals with their opponents
vindictively and adopted, they would have to never beaten. You convinced themselves, who were their local allies
Representative and more effective, when they were really. It is that the ingredients are created in the heady moment of victory,
Patrick Cockburn writes the future disasters, produce

THE civil war in Libya went on longer than expected, but the fall of Tripoli came faster than. As in Kabul in 2001 and Baghdad in 2003 were there no last stand of the defeated regime, whose Anhänger appear away have melted, when they saw that defeat is inevitable.

It is indeed clear that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has lost power, it is not sure, he has won. The anti-militias, that now in the capital streaming were by a common enemy United, but not much else. The Transitional National Council in Benghazi, as the legitimate Government of Libya, of so many foreign States recognized is already of dubious legitimacy and authority.

There is another problem in the war ended. It has never been a just trial of strength between two groups of Libyans due to the crucial role of the NATO air strikes. The rebels themselves admit that their name without with 7.459 air raids on targets Pro-Gaddafi - they would be led in the air war - dead or in flight. The question therefore remains as the rebels peacefully supports can convert their foreign victory on the battlefield to a stable peace for all parties in Libya.

Precedents in Afghanistan and Iraq are not encouraging, and serve as a warning. The anti-Taliban troops in Afghanistan won military success thanks foreign air support as in Libya. You used then this temporary dominance arrogant and catastrophically establish a regime weighted, against the Pashtun community.

In the Iraq, the Americans - over confident after the easy defeat of Saddam Hussein - the Iraqi army disbanded and former members of the Baath Party excluded from jobs and makes you little choice, but to fight. Most Iraqis were glad the end of Saddam Hussein, but the battle to replace him, almost destroyed the country.

Does the same thing in Libya? In Tripoli, as in most oil States, the Government provides the most jobs and many Libyans have also under the old regime. How will they pay now for it on the losing side? The air was thick yesterday to avoid acts of vengeance with calls to premiere for its fighters. But it was only last month that the TNC Commander-in-Chief in some obscure and unexplained Act of revenge had been murdered. The rebel Cabinet was dissolved, and again not been produced, which his turns out to investigate the killing. The TNC produced guidelines for ruling country post-Gaddafi, which aims to ensure that law and order be maintained, people fed and continued public service.

It is much too early to know whether a piece of foreign-inspired wishful thinking or some beneficial effect on the development of this. The Libyan Government was a dilapidated organization in the best of times, so get everyone in the ground to a halt in its effectiveness not too flashy at first. But many of those celebrating in the streets of Tripoli and cheering on the advancing rebel columns will expect that their lives better and will be disappointed if this does not happen.

Foreign powers will likely press for steps to form a constituent Assembly of a kind to give the new Government legitimacy. It must be to create institutions, largely abolished the Colonel Gaddafi and supposedly democratic committees that monitored its quirky a-man rule in fact. This will not just be done. Long-term opponents of the regime it is difficult to loot the victory with the parts, the are their coats at the last minute.

Some groups have together was authorized by the war itself, as long at urged the edge Berber from the mountains southwest of Tripoli, the most effective fighting militia. You want to be recognized its contribution in a redistribution which makes.

Libya has several advantages over Afghanistan and Iraq. It is not a country with a great and desperate segment of the population of destitute and life on the edge of malnutrition. It must be not the same blood-soaked recent history as Afghanistan and Iraq. Never include his a-man rule in close by Saddam Hussein for savagery came for all the demonization of Colonel Gaddafi in the last six months.

In Afghanistan and the Iraq the external forces to military success responds by exaggerating their hands. She treated their opponents vindictively and it assumed that she never to been beaten. They convinced themselves that their local allies were representative and more effective, when they were really. In the heady moment of victory, it is that which produce future disasters the ingredients are created.

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CounterPunch.org, August 23. Patrick Cockburn is the author of Muqtada.

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